Government stable and coup unlikely
WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI & YUTHANA PRAIWAN
Economic uncertainties and oil prices are a greater concern than politics, according to Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee. ''I don't believe there will be another coup.
The public would not support it,'' he told members of the Securities Analysts Association yesterday.
''I think public concerns are focused more on the economy than anything else. And frankly, I don't believe that a coup would result in better management for the country. The situation today is quite different than two years ago.''
Concerns about another coup have been circulating in the financial markets for weeks, affecting investor confidence and undermining support for the government, despite denials by military leaders.
Dr Surapong stressed that notwithstanding politics, the government remained confident that it could address current economic problems.
Thailand was facing the risk of stagflation, or rising inflation and declining economic growth. The consumer price index reached a two-year high at 6.2% in April, largely due to higher food and energy prices.
But Dr Surapong said price stability remained better than in many other countries, and that economic growth was on track to reach 6% this year, up from 4.8% last year.
He said the government would shift its focus to increasing consumers' incomes. Low-ranking civil servants could be offered weekend jobs to supplement their incomes, for example, while skills training programmes would be expanded to improve productivity.
He added that the transport infrastructure megaproject programme, development plans for the Southern Seaboard and expansion of Suvarnabhumi Airport would also be accelerated to spur investment.
New measures would be announced this month to encourage the use of alternative fuels, particularly natural gas for vehicles (NGV).
Dr Surapong said that promoting public adoption of and access to alternative fuels, including NGV, compressed natural gas, gasohol and biofuels was crucial to reducing the country's dependence on imported oil.
''Alternative energy policies to date may have been unclear. For instance, in 2005 PTT Plc said it would open 200 new NGV stations within the next two or three years. But today, PTT is behind its target, because policies lacked continuity,'' he said. ''We want to clearly establish now that NGV is part of national energy policy. Greater use of NGV will help lead to economies of scale and reduce costs for equipment.''
Pornchai Rujiprapa, the permanent secretary of the Energy Ministry, said retail oil prices would likely soon reach 40 baht per litre.
Premium petrol is currently quoted at 37.59 per litre. Oil prices yesterday eased from last week's record highs of $126 per barrel after the US dollar gained against the euro and the yen.
Mr Pornchai said Thailand needed to accelerate development of alternative fuels to help cut its use of oil, of which 80% is imported.
Thailand's logistics networks, including railways and marine transport, needed to be improved to help increase efficiency in energy usage.
Mr Pornchai suggested that wages should be raised to help offset the impact of higher energy prices.
''Consumer purchasing power is tied closely with oil prices. We have to acknowledge that oil prices are rising each day with no end in sight. With the cost of living now double that of last year, something must be done to prevent a chain effect,'' he said.
Tanit Sorat, a vice-chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said crude prices could reach $150 a barrel shortly.
''Purchasing power is definitely unable to keep up with the rapid increase in prices. We could see a world recession,'' he said.
Mr Tanit said that for most workers, travel expenses could account for up to one-third of their monthly expenses, up from one-quarter last year, which would reduce disposable income.
According to the FTI, fuel now accounts for around 60% of overall transport costs, up from 40% last year.
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