By Atiya Achakulwisut
The "fury" has begun to subside now that people have been freed to fly again. The "sound," however, is getting louder for the coalition to give a chance to the other major party to form a government for a change. COMMENTARY
Or there is the possibility that the acting prime minister could dissolve the House of Representatives altogether and start anew (if that is still a possibility).
The "sound" is fast becoming a panic cry of terror after the familiar face of Public Health Minister Chalerm Yubamrung popped up as a top candidate to be the next prime minister of Thailand.
Should we seize the opportunity to fly while we still can and become airborne right away? What chance does Thailand have under the double acts of maverick Mr Chalerm and the reckless People's Alliance for Democracy?
In all honesty, I can't think of what high-impact move the PAD can come up with next that will top its ruinous siege of the two Bangkok airports. And my brain threatens to shut down every time I try to think of other high-profile targets that will cause as much disturbance to public life as possible. As it also seems to freeze over whenever I think up the phrase... Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung.
The brain probably knows better than the heart, which has an unhealthy habit of storing up too much hope.
The brain is simply preparing itself for life here in the future, when having a thought or an ability to think would actually be superfluous.
Now while we have a little bit of a truce and a few grey cells still functioning, let's make some use of them.
Let's try to see if the two wishes of the business community and prominent people have a chance of coming true so that we may have a peaceful Christmas and possibly a joyful cross-over to the New Year.
Let's consider the possibility of a Democrat-led government first.
Although this seems to be an alternative favoured by such muscular players as the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking comprising the Board of Trade of Thailand, Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers' Association, it's at best a long shot. Mathematically speaking, the Democrats' numbers do not add up even if they can sway all the coalition parties except the now-defunct People Power to join hands. The only road to Government House for the Democrat party is through defection and we can safely assume that no defection is possible without an offer that is tempting enough. For now, the Democrats do not seem to have anything irresistible.
How about the much-hoped-for House dissolution? This has always been an available card in the PPP's hands. That it didn't choose to play it even when it would have benefited the party most - which would have been before the dissolution verdict came out so that they could avoid some of the harshest effects of the punishment - can only mean the party never intended to play it unless it absolutely had to.
So far, the PPP is sticking to the same, exportable plot line as the exiled convict Thaksin Shinawatra - that of democracy being wronged. For that line to be valid, the party must remain in power, if only to differentiate it from the opponent, which must always be outside of the power and thus undemocratic.
Even though the government party is expected to return en masse to parliament if a new election is called, there will inevitably be a vacuum which can last a few months after the House is dissolved. In politics, a month can be an eternity, especially when you are not in full control of the state apparatus.
So, in order to continue its portrayal of itself as the victim, the ruling party would gain more by proposing candidates for the premiership who have less appeal in the eyes of the public, especially its detractors among the urban middle-class.
The more the party seems to be rejected, the more victimised it would become in the eyes of the "democracy-loving" communities both in and outside of the country.
While I have hope in my heart that the ruling party and its coalition will come to their senses and realise they have no one on the list who qualifies to serve as PM during this time of crisis, and opt to dissolve the House and prepare a better line-up for administrative posts should they get elected again, I am afraid the brain might be right.
And I am very afraid for its functioning in the near future.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.
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The "fury" has begun to subside now that people have been freed to fly again. The "sound," however, is getting louder for the coalition to give a chance to the other major party to form a government for a change. COMMENTARY
Or there is the possibility that the acting prime minister could dissolve the House of Representatives altogether and start anew (if that is still a possibility).
The "sound" is fast becoming a panic cry of terror after the familiar face of Public Health Minister Chalerm Yubamrung popped up as a top candidate to be the next prime minister of Thailand.
Should we seize the opportunity to fly while we still can and become airborne right away? What chance does Thailand have under the double acts of maverick Mr Chalerm and the reckless People's Alliance for Democracy?
In all honesty, I can't think of what high-impact move the PAD can come up with next that will top its ruinous siege of the two Bangkok airports. And my brain threatens to shut down every time I try to think of other high-profile targets that will cause as much disturbance to public life as possible. As it also seems to freeze over whenever I think up the phrase... Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung.
The brain probably knows better than the heart, which has an unhealthy habit of storing up too much hope.
The brain is simply preparing itself for life here in the future, when having a thought or an ability to think would actually be superfluous.
Now while we have a little bit of a truce and a few grey cells still functioning, let's make some use of them.
Let's try to see if the two wishes of the business community and prominent people have a chance of coming true so that we may have a peaceful Christmas and possibly a joyful cross-over to the New Year.
Let's consider the possibility of a Democrat-led government first.
Although this seems to be an alternative favoured by such muscular players as the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking comprising the Board of Trade of Thailand, Federation of Thai Industries and the Thai Bankers' Association, it's at best a long shot. Mathematically speaking, the Democrats' numbers do not add up even if they can sway all the coalition parties except the now-defunct People Power to join hands. The only road to Government House for the Democrat party is through defection and we can safely assume that no defection is possible without an offer that is tempting enough. For now, the Democrats do not seem to have anything irresistible.
How about the much-hoped-for House dissolution? This has always been an available card in the PPP's hands. That it didn't choose to play it even when it would have benefited the party most - which would have been before the dissolution verdict came out so that they could avoid some of the harshest effects of the punishment - can only mean the party never intended to play it unless it absolutely had to.
So far, the PPP is sticking to the same, exportable plot line as the exiled convict Thaksin Shinawatra - that of democracy being wronged. For that line to be valid, the party must remain in power, if only to differentiate it from the opponent, which must always be outside of the power and thus undemocratic.
Even though the government party is expected to return en masse to parliament if a new election is called, there will inevitably be a vacuum which can last a few months after the House is dissolved. In politics, a month can be an eternity, especially when you are not in full control of the state apparatus.
So, in order to continue its portrayal of itself as the victim, the ruling party would gain more by proposing candidates for the premiership who have less appeal in the eyes of the public, especially its detractors among the urban middle-class.
The more the party seems to be rejected, the more victimised it would become in the eyes of the "democracy-loving" communities both in and outside of the country.
While I have hope in my heart that the ruling party and its coalition will come to their senses and realise they have no one on the list who qualifies to serve as PM during this time of crisis, and opt to dissolve the House and prepare a better line-up for administrative posts should they get elected again, I am afraid the brain might be right.
And I am very afraid for its functioning in the near future.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Editorial Pages Editor, Bangkok Post.
Discuss
Add this link to...
Tell a friend
Bury
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