By The Nation
Published on November 21, 2008

Dear editor, Is it safe to join the People's Alliance for Democracy's rally on Sunday?
The above e-mail came from a reader who used to actively support the PAD during Thaksin Shinawatra's last days in power, but who has stayed away from Government House and deplores the movement's increasing belligerence.

Yesterday's bomb attack on the PAD and veiled threats from the Thaksin camp to go for broke have reinforced her resolve. However, like the rest of the country, she is unsure whether Thai politics will be better off if she simply leaves it alone.

My answer to her question is, I don't know and I don't think anyone does. Our politics has deteriorated to the point where uncontrollable factors can override the manageable ones.

It's like two fully armed gangs facing off on a street. Yes, what will happen next still pretty much depends on what the gang leaders say next, but if a badly shaken gang member accidentally fires his gun, that will be |it.

Comments from the pro-Thaksin side have ranged from "Don't think too much or overreact" to "the real war of the people is about to begin". Adding to the tension is the claim by People Power Party MP Pracha Prasopdee that either Thaksin or his ex-wife Pojaman will return to Thailand on December 25.

Whatever happens this Sunday, when the pro- and anti-Thaksin camps will stage their new shows of force, it is unlikely to change Thailand's foreseeable future. We seem to be rolling relentlessly toward real dictatorship, as whoever emerges the winner or gains a substantial upper hand from this showdown will have to resort to drastic measures to make sure the other side cannot bounce back this time.

One of the bad signs is that talk in favour of another coup is not only limited to the anti-Thaksin camp now.

It has spread to the other side and we can now hear some of Thaksin's sympathisers say they wouldn't mind |a friendly military intervention in favour of the ousted leader.

The worst sign of all regarding our country's future, however, may have come from you and me, the way we reacted to the grenade explosion that killed one person inside Government House. Were you shocked into silence, and sad and nervous all day? Or did you just grimly absorb the news and go about your daily routines, worried more about whether your company will give a year-end bonus?

Apathy, in many cases, is evil's way of preparing us for worse things to come.
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